The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been closely watching recent events unfolding in the war in the Middle East, which have disrupted supply chains, driven up prices, and caused significant pain on people and economies around the world. At the IMF's 2026 Spring Meetings, Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, discussed the impact that the conflict has had and how the IMF is supporting member countries.
“My hopes, my prayers are for the current ceasefire to lead to a durable peace. The impact on the global economy is already large. Even if the conflict is short-lived, extensive infrastructure damage and supply chain disruptions are pushing prices up and slowing global growth down from 3.4% last year to 3.1% in 2026. But if the conflict persists, and oil prices stay high for an extended period, we must brace for tough times ahead. Our world economic outlook outlines a range of scenarios. In the most adverse case, growth could fall to 2%. And the shock is global: all countries are affected by higher energy prices. But the negative impact is highly asymmetric, with the biggest burdens falling on countries that import energy and have limited policy space. In many cases, these are low-income or fragile economies. They need attention, and an important focus of our discussion this week is on how we can best support them,” stated Georgieva.
In the near term, maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability remains a priority as governments respond to the supply shock. Policy responses may differ across countries, with monetary authorities weighing whether to hold course or act depending on underlying conditions. Within that broader response, fiscal policy is a central concern, where limited fiscal space is restricting how governments can respond.
“We have been warning for some time that public debt is constraining fiscal space. I want to stress what is different this time in comparison to COVID is the cumulative impact of shock upon shock. It has pushed debt to dangerously-high levels. Global public debt is on track to breach 100% of GDP in 2029, a level not seen since the aftermath of World War II. So, to maintain their fiscal policy credibility, policymakers need to strike a careful balance between safeguarding fiscal sustainability and protecting those who are hit the hardest and have least capacity to respond. The good news is that many countries have so far avoided un-targeted tax cuts, energy subsidies and price controls. The not-so-good news is that we are seeing some countries putting in place un-targeted measures, export controls, or broad-based tax cuts. While the intention behind these measures may be good - it is to protect people from the shock - such untargeted actions will only prolong the pain of high prices,” cautioned Georgieva.
Even as governments address immediate pressures, longer-term forces continue to shape the global economy, including shifts in geopolitics, trade, technology, demographics, and climate. Strengthening growth through structural reforms and rebuilding policy space remain central to improving resilience. In that context, the IMF’s support role becomes increasingly important.
“We serve as the firefighter for our member countries and we are committed to helping them navigate this complex landscape. We anticipate near-term demand for IMF financial support to range between $20 and $50 billion dollars. This represents augmentations of some existing programs – currently we have 39 programs – and prospective demand for new programs from at least a dozen countries - a number of them in sub-Saharan Africa. We are coordinating closely with the World Bank, with the International Energy Agency, with other partners - including at the regional level - to maximize our combined response. Even as we step up our support, we continue to adapt our toolkit. We are doing very important reviews - review of program design and conditionality, comprehensive surveillance review, review of our FSAP - so we can further sharpen the policy advice we provide to our members. We continue to work on countries on that, including through the Global Sovereign Debt Round Table - it will meet again this afternoon. And as our member countries navigate this moment of uncertainty, we are helping them think ahead, so they can handle any form of turbulence,” concluded Georgieva.
To watch the full press briefing, click here: Press Briefing: Managing Director’s Global Policy Agenda
To read the full report, click here: The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda Spring Meetings 2026: Managing Shocks and Transformations
